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☆ Inflation to dog world economy next year, postponing rate cuts: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Despite broad success in bringing inflation down from its highs - the easier bit - prices are still rising faster than most central banks would prefer and hitting their inflation targets is likely to be tough. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which often leads the interest rate cycle, was also forecast to wait until July-September 2024 before cutting. The majority backing no cuts until the second half of 2024 has also grown stronger for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India. Even the Bank of Japan, the outlier sticking to ultra-loose policy through this entire round of inflation, is now expected to abandon negative interest rates next year. Crucially, most economists agree the first easing steps will not be the beginning of a rapid series of cuts.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christine Lagarde, Douglas Porter, it's, Nathan Sheets, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, BMO, Reserve Bank of New, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Japan, Citi, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank Indonesia, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Istanbul, Johannesburg, London, Shanghai, Tokyo

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ Home Sellers Take On the Realtors Cartel
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Journal Editorial Report: The week's best and worst from Dan Henninger, Mary O’Grady and Kim Strassel. Images: Reuters/AFP/Getty Images/Bloomberg News Composite: Mark KellyThe 1.5 million-member National Association of Realtors spent $81.7 million on political lobbying in 2022, more than any other business group. Consider Burnett v. NAR, a federal class-action suit that Missouri home sellers have brought against the association. The case, which went to trial last week, presents an existential threat to the cartel. If the plaintiffs prevail, home buyers and sellers could save $120 billion in fees each year.

Persons: Dan Henninger, Mary O’Grady, Kim Strassel, Mark Kelly, Burnett Organizations: AFP, Getty, Bloomberg, National Association of Realtors, NAR Locations: Missouri

[1/5] Bass-Baritone Gerald Finley and soprano Julia Bullock perform during an opera rehearsal "Antony and Cleopatra" at Gran Teatre del Liceu in Barcelona, Spain, October 18, 2023. REUTERS/ Albert Gea Acquire Licensing RightsBARCELONA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Barcelona's opera house has hired an "intimacy director" to ensure performers are comfortable taking part in passionate scenes, in a first for Spain and a rarity for continental Europe. The role's creation comes after the #MeToo movement rocked the movie industry but also the opera world with sexual harassment accusations. Intimacy director Ita O'Brien will oversee William Shakespeare's adapted play, 'Antony and Cleopatra', which opens at Barcelona's Gran Teatre del Liceu opera house on Oct. 28. Lesca said there should be an intimacy director in every opera.

Persons: Gerald Finley, Julia Bullock, Antony, Cleopatra, Albert Gea, Ita O'Brien, William Shakespeare's, O'Brien, Adriana Bignagni Lesca, Charmian, Lesca, Luis Rubiales, Placido Domingo, Joan Faus, Aislinn Laing, Deborah Kyvrikosaios Organizations: Gran Teatre del Liceu, REUTERS, Rights, Gran Teatre del, HBO, Netflix, Thomson Locations: Gran, Barcelona, Spain, Rights BARCELONA, Europe, Gran Teatre del Liceu, United States, Britain, Spanish

☆ BoC likely done raising rates, to cut by mid-2024 say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The risk of a revival in inflation, last measured at 3.8%, has led most to forecast now is not the time for the central bank to strongly signal they are done raising rates. Twenty-nine of 32 economists polled Oct. 13-20 expect no change to the central bank's 5.00% overnight rate (CABOCR=ECI), with the remaining three expecting a 25 basis point hike. While most are confident the central bank is done hiking, a significant minority of economists who answered an additional question, 8 of 18, said the risk of the BoC raising rates at least once more is "high". Still, a two-thirds majority, 20 of 30, see the BoC cutting its overnight rate at least once before end-June 2024. The distribution of where economists saw the overnight rate by end-June was split many ways.

Persons: Randall Bartlett, underscoring, Tony Stillo, Milounee Purohit, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Desjardins, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Canada

☆ Fed done hiking rates, but higher for longer message gaining traction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Several Fed officials have indicated that may work as a substitute to further rate rises, while still stressing rates will remain higher for longer. Over 80% of economists, 91 of 111, had no rate cut in their forecast until at least the second quarter of next year. That 55% majority slipped from over 70% in a September poll, extending a trend of rate cut calls being pushed to later. As recently as July, a majority of economists polled said the Fed would start cutting by end-March. All but two of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was the first rate cut comes later than they expect.

Persons: Brett Ryan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lawrence Werther, Prerana Bhat, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, Jonathan Cable Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of New, Daiwa, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, of New York

☆ ‘Our Enemies Are the CEOs . . . Our Comrades Are in Gaza’
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-leftist-union-seiu-equivocate-or-side-with-hamas-atrocity-israel-47127a92

Persons: Dow Jones, 47127a92 Organizations: seiu Locations: israel

☆ The UAW Has the Wrong Target for ‘Corporate Greed’
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-uaw-has-the-wrong-target-for-corporate-greed-b1d63cce

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: uaw

☆ Undeterred by dollar's renewed strength, analysts see weakness ahead: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Adam Cole, the chief currency strategist at RBC, says he is biased toward a stronger dollar but admits the prevailing foreign exchange view in markets remains a tough nut to crack. "If you look at consensus forecasts, the consensus has been dollar negative for five years now and it hasn't worked," Cole said. One notable outlier among major central banks is the Bank of Japan, which has made the yen one of the worst-performing major currencies this year, down over 13%. (For other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Adam Cole, hasn't, Cole, Jane Foley, Rabobank's Foley, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Treasury, RBC, U.S, Futures, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Reuters, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S

☆ How ‘Preapproved Narratives’ Corrupt Science
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Journal Editorial Report: Paul Gigot Interviews Bjorn Lomborg. Images: AP/EPA Composite: Mark KellyScientists were aghast last month when Patrick Brown , climate director at the Breakthrough Institute in Berkeley, Calif., acknowledged that he’d censored one of his studies to increase his odds of getting published. Credit to him for being honest about something his peers also do but are loath to admit.

Persons: Paul Gigot, Bjorn Lomborg, Mark Kelly Scientists, Patrick Brown Organizations: Breakthrough Institute Locations: Berkeley, Calif

☆ California’s Smash-and-Grab Politics
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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Persons: Dow Jones, newsom

☆ Billions to Connect Everyone to High-Speed Internet Could Still Fall Short
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Madeleine Ngo | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Along the southeastern edge of Oklahoma, where expansive cattle ranches and empty storefronts dot the landscape, the lack of high-speed internet service has become a daily frustration for residents. She cannot schedule medical appointments, request prescription refills or pay her bills online until she gets to work. “I’m hoping it will change,” Ms. Finley, 60, said sitting in her home on a recent afternoon. If President Biden gets his way, Ms. Finley and her neighbors will benefit from a $42.5 billion program to expand fast internet access across the country. The funding, which was included in the 2021 infrastructure law, is part of an initiative that has high ambitions: to provide “affordable, reliable high-speed internet” access for every home and business by 2030.

Persons: Wanda Finley, Okla, “ I’m, Ms, Finley, Biden Locations: Oklahoma, Sawyer

☆ DayQuil, Covid Vaccine Boosters and FDA Science
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/dayquil-covid-vaccine-boosters-and-fda-science-medicine-study-pill-placebo-sick-bb9e457b

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: fda

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 5.50% in September, significant minority expect further hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Nearly all 65 economists in the Sept. 11-13 Reuters poll expected the BoE to hike its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% this month, in line with interest rate futures pricing. Survey medians showed the Bank Rate was expected to peak at 5.50%, matching rate futures pricing, and stay there until mid-2024. While 28 economists expected the Bank Rate to peak at 5.75%, two said 6.00%. Nine of 16 gilt-edged Market Makers (GEMMs) that participated in the poll predicted a 5.50% peak rate and seven said 5.75%. A separate Reuters poll showed average house prices in Britain were predicted to fall 4% this year and flatline in 2024 before rising in 2025.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann, Shaloo Shrivastava, Anitta Sunil, Purujit Arun, Maneesh Kumar, Pranoy, Ross Finley, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, HSBC, MPC, Royal Institution, Chartered Surveyors, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Investec

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.

☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ The Student-Debt Bubble Fueled a Housing Bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-student-debt-bubble-fueled-a-housing-bubble-debt-income-obama-fannie-freddie-bd29b05c

Persons: Dow Jones, freddie, bd29b05c

☆ It Takes a Village, but in California Parents Aren’t Welcome
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-takes-a-village-but-in-california-parents-arent-welcome-gender-chino-cdace91b

Persons: Dow Jones Locations: california

☆ RBA to hold rates at 4.10% on Tuesday, but will hike again next quarter: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Two respondents in the Aug 30-Sept 1 poll expected a 25 basis point (bps) hike. Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA, and Westpac expected rates to remain unchanged until at least end-2023, while NAB predicted one more rate hike to 4.35% in November. Three economists expected two more 25 bps hikes in the fourth quarter. While BlackRock and Deutsche Bank expected hikes in November and December, Citi expected moves in October and November. "We think they'll maintain the tightening bias and there may be further risk of a rate hike later in the year," said Benjamin Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Taylor Nugent, Michele Bullock's, Benjamin Picton, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, NAB, ANZ, CBA, Westpac, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

With average house prices having surged 25% during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest rates and higher living costs in a struggling economy have driven many to rent while they anticipate house prices will fall. All but one predicted prices would fall this year. House prices were forecast to stagnate next year, an upgrade compared to the 2.0% fall predicted three months ago. That comes after many years of close to zero and negative policy interest rates following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic. Eleven of 14 respondents said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Sebastian Schnejdar, Indradip Ghosh, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Housing, ING, European Central Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. Interest rate futures are pricing in no change next week, but are nearly split over whether rates rise once more. In the latest poll, eight of 34 economists expect one more rate rise to 5.25% by the end of this year, compared with only one in a July poll. "We expect the Bank will hold the overnight rate steady at 5.00% through mid-2024 as the full impact of past rate hikes helps push the economy into a moderate recession. A scenario in which Canadian interest rates stay higher for longer could increase pressure on highly-indebted households, with almost 20% of Canadian mortgages due for renewal next year.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Claire Fan, Tony Stillo, We're, Sal Guatieri, BMO's Guatieri, Milounee Purohit, Prerana Bhat, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, BoC, Canada, RBC, Oxford Economics, U.S . Federal, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, Canadian

☆ Short U.S. housing correction likely over; tight supply to keep prices high: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After falling nearly 7% from a cycle high in June 2022 - well short of predictions made late last year for a 12% peak-to-trough fall - average house prices started rising again in February and are now only around 1% below their peak. "While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have passed and we don't expect further sustained declines," said Andrew Burrell, chief property economist at Capital Economics. Average house prices were forecast to stagnate in 2024 despite predictions for a rate cut by the middle of the year. They were forecast to average 4.17 million units in the second half of this year, lower than 4.27 million in the previous poll. Despite a near 45% pandemic-era rise in house prices and the market starting to climb again, respondents were equally split on what would happen to purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers over the coming year.

Persons: Octavio Jones, Andrew Burrell, Brad Hunter, Hunter, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Hunter Housing Economics, Thomson Locations: Tampa , Florida, U.S

☆ New Zealand house prices to rise again on supply shortage, rate cut hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand house prices are forecast to rise again next year due to an ongoing supply shortage and expectations for interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll of property market analysts. That is short of a roughly 20% correction most property analysts predicted in May following a pandemic-era boom that boosted prices by more than 40%. Prices have started to rise again on returning demand meeting limited available supply. New Zealand house prices were expected to decline 4.8% this year, the latest Reuters poll of 11 property market analysts taken Aug. 14-28 showed. Average property prices were then expected to rise 5.0% and 6.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, an upgrade from 3.4% and 5.0% in the previous poll.

Persons: Miles Workman, homebuyers, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ANZ, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Bengaluru

☆ Donald Trump, 2024 and the Reasoning Republican Voter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Allysia Finley | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Journal Editorial Report: GOP candidates square off in first primary debate and clash over aid to Ukraine. Image: Win McNamee/Getty ImagesSay this much for Vivek Ramaswamy: He has an impressive aptitude for attracting attention. Last Monday he tweeted a video of himself shirtless and slugging tennis balls. (It wasn’t clear whether his shots landed in.) The caption: “Three hours of solid debate prep this morning.” His lack of actual debate prep showed in his amateurish performance Wednesday evening.

Persons: Win McNamee, Vivek Ramaswamy Locations: Ukraine

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